3 Causes for Hope and 3 Causes for Concern with the 2024 Seattle Mariners
By Brittany Wisner
Seattle, WA - Ahead of a new season for the Seattle Mariners, there’s plenty of reason to be excited about a team that seems ready to get itself back to the postseason with added veterans and the same stud rotation from this past year that dragged the group within a game of the playoffs. On the other hand, there is reasonable concern for how things may go haywire with this Mariners squad, with concerns stemming from injuries to those that think the team still didn’t do enough to catch up with the Texas teams within the American League West. As we have reached Opening Day for the 2024 campaign, what reasons do the optimists have to support their hopes for this years group, and what is there for the pessimists to look at and support their anger with the franchise? Here’s three for each side of the coin.
Causes for Hope:
1) Let’s Talk About The Vibes
For the “shut up about the vibes” crowd, stick with me here.
While I don’t think there’s anything inherently wrong with a team embracing a mantra like “good vibes only,” the 2023 Mariners needed a few more vibes than just the ones of the “good” variety, especially early-on in the season.
The confidence in last year’s Spring Training camp was palpable. We heard the team saying all the right things, everyone seemingly bought into the idea that they were a World Series contending team before even taking the field. We even saw this attitude portrayed in the media the organization produced, perhaps most notably in the “Win It All” whiteboard video that would inevitably age like milk and later provide the internet its hottest meme of the off-season.
But something was missing then that we’re actually seeing in this year’s camp.
While it’s all fine and good to talk the talk of being a contender, at some point, you have to walk the walk, and unfortunately the 2023 Mariners couldn’t seem to find that gear until it was too late. The team started off the regular season cold (again) and uncharacteristically sloppy in their opening series against Cleveland. In game 2 of that series, they committed three errors that would lead to five unearned runs. They walked 8 total batters. It was not the type of Mariners baseball we had grown accustomed to seeing.
That game in particular felt like a tone-setter for the following months. The cold start would prolong throughout April, May, and June, as would the mental mistakes and occasionally sloppy play (I am still trying to hide the gray hairs that I got from watching that team consistently get picked off or run straight into an out on the base paths). And, instead of a sense of urgency to right the ship, they would seemingly take on a laissez-faire approach for the first few months, often recalling in interviews their slow start to the 2022 season as reason to believe that they would be just fine.
The difference this year? We are already hearing a sense of urgency from players and an understanding that their cold starts of the past have not only been unideal but unacceptable for a team with contending aspirations.
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh rounds the bases following his late home run in a home victory over the San Diego Padres on August 9th, 2023. (Photos by Liz Wolter)
In an interview with Cal Raleigh, Brock Huard of Seattle Sports described the feel of this year’s camp as a “workman-like group.” Raleigh agreed but also added “You know, we can sit here and we can talk about how focused this group is or how ready we are to come back and kind of make this story of a season, but it doesn’t matter what we say. It matters what happens on March 28th.”*
*this quote has been altered slightly to account for the fact that Cal didn’t know when opening day was
Okay, that’s new. A recognition of the work that actually needs to be done, not just talked about.
Cal also spoke to the cold starts in another interview with Seattle Sports: “I think in the past maybe we’ve come into camp and maybe tried to get our feet wet here and there and then tried to ramp up towards the end.. I feel like from day one guys were ready to go here.”
Urgency. That’s also new.
Another year of experience under the belt of Cal Raleigh - coupled with his infamous end-of-season remarks (which he was right about, by the way) - has solidified him as one of this squad’s primary leaders and hearing him reflect a new, more urgent attitude among this year’s group is encouraging. There is so much hope and optimism in Spring Training but all those feel-good vibes will mean nothing if the team doesn’t go out and actually perform. A dose of realism is healthy. This team seems to have a better understanding of the job that lies ahead of them and the work that will be required starting now if they want to get back to the postseason.
Seattle Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger during the 2022 season. (Photos by Liv Lyons)
2) Mitch Haniger
Speaking of leadership and setting a new tone, welcome back Mitch Haniger. My oh my what a spring he has had. After homering in his first at-bat back in a Mariners jersey (how can you not be romantic about baseball?), Haniger has slashed .429/.487/.943 with a 1.430 OPS in 15 games. Yes, it’s only Spring Training, but after a difficult year in San Francisco where injuries limited him to only 61 games in which he slashed .209/.266/.365, this was just the start Haniger needed.
His torrid spring has reminded us just what he’s capable of when healthy. If the Mariners can get some version of the 2021 Haniger, who led the team in homeruns (39) and slugging percentage (.485), he will add some much needed power to a lineup that has lost much of its thump with the departures of Eugenio Suárez and Teoscar Hernández.
Perhaps just as important as Haniger’s lineup contributions though are his clubhouse contributions and it’s safe to say he has come into camp with a little extra bounce in his step. The always serious, hyper-focused Haniger still radiates the same level of intensity as he always has, but his words are a little softer now, his tone carrying a new melody of happiness, reflective of a man who has seen the other side and gained a new-found appreciation for that which is familiar and a culture that he has helped build.
“It’s like I never left,” Haniger told MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer. “I know how we run Spring Training, and it just feels like home to me.” He also mentioned in multiple interviews how emotionally challenging it was for him in the early months of last season to be watching the team from afar, saying “I was watching a lot of Mariners games early on last season, definitely missing playing in Seattle… I kind of had to stop because it was making me sad. So it’s good to be back.”
The Mariners have had a lot of players leave over recent years but they’ve yet to have someone as influential as Mitch return to the organization and actively vocalize sincere appreciation for how the Mariners operate and the positives that the organization has to offer. After a tumultuous off-season that undoubtedly and understandably frustrated and angered players at times (shameless plug to my own tweet here), having a leader in the clubhouse with some gained perspective and a true joy to be wearing a Mariners jersey could be extremely beneficial in re-setting the tone for the 2024 season.
My hope for Haniger this season is that he can stay healthy and contribute on the field, but I’ll be honest: even if that doesn’t happen, Mitch Haniger will always be bigger than on-field performance to me. To me, he will always represent the deeply-rooted relationship between Mariners fans and the players, a unity forged by a promise he made to a desperate city that reignited its love for baseball. I will cherish and enjoy every day that he wears a Mariners uniform, regardless of stats or production.
3) Brant Brown
I won’t get into my rant about why a “pass the baton/do what you need to do to win the game today” approach wasn’t being preached before now (or, perhaps why it wasn’t being preached effectively), but I am encouraged to hear Brant Brown’s message resonate so quickly with the players.
Brown, the team’s new “offensive coordinator,” comes back to the Mariners where he spent five years in the minor leagues after stints with both the Dodgers and most recently the Marlins. Brown’s role will focus mostly on overall approach, leaving the breakdown of individual hitting mechanics to hitting coach Jarret DeHart.
Brown outlined in three parts what his messaging is to players on an episode of The Hot Stove Show:
It's not what the pitcher is trying to do, it's what you are trying to do to the pitcher
Is there a situation that needs to get done to help us win that changes what you are trying to do?
Know where you are at in the count and modify intent for where you are at in the at-bat and where we are at in the game. Everything needs to be tapered towards a letter which is a "W," instead of a number.
The last point seemingly summarizes how he is trying to shift players’ mindset from any sort of focus on individual statistics to a focus on simply doing whatever needs to be done in that moment to help the team win that day.
Players have already spoken very highly of Brown and the way in which he has packaged this approach to the players. “I feel like everybody in that clubhouse believes in Brant Brown,” Cal Raleigh said. “And, as far as the things that he’s bringing to the table, the things that he’s talking about, it’s firing us up. And it’s kind of an exciting new thing that’s come up… it’s like a fresh new start.”
The 2023 Mariners offense was painful to watch at times. They struck out a league-leading 430 times with runners in scoring position and were 22nd in the league in OPS with runners in scoring position. It seemed clear that a change was needed. The overwhelmingly positive reactions so far from players to Brown’s messaging - both in interviews and shown by the offensive product we’ve seen this spring on the field - is giving me hope for a much more contact-oriented, pass-the-baton approach in 2024 that hopefully results in much less swing-and-miss and less runners left on base.
Causes for Concern:
1) As a former catcher, I’ll allow some personal bias here and start off with something that I don’t think is being talked about enough: Catching Depth.
The Mariners lost Tom Murphy to free agency this winter and did not replace his offensive production when acquiring Seby Zavala to become Cal Raleigh’s new backup. Zavala, who has slashed .210/.275/.347 with a .622 OPS in his 458 career ABs is known to be more of a defensive catcher who will be serviceable behind the plate but is most likely not going to provide any level of offensive production that you have to make room in your lineup for, like the Mariners were lucky to have with Murphy.
Per Daniel Kramer, the Mariners will deploy more of a 70/30 or 80/20 split at the catcher position, as opposed to the 50/50 or 60/40 split that was used with Murphy in 2023. They can also use Mitch Garver sparingly, ideally only when needed, as the organization has spoken very clearly on their intent to keep Garver healthy by deploying him primarily in the DH role.
Seattle Mariners designated hitter Mitch Garver during the teams March 5th, 2024 Spring Training game at Peoria Sports Complex against the Texas Rangers. (Photos by Liv Lyons)
This scenario puts much more pressure on Cal than I think is ideal. We have watched him for two years now get absolutely beaten and battered behind home plate. He was lucky to avoid any significant injuries last year - only missing a couple games due to neck spasms - but we saw him take quite a few blows in 2022. Most notably, he played through the playoffs with a broken thumb and torn ligament in his catching hand. While he underwent a surgery that repaired the damage, that type of injury can be relatively easy to retrigger, especially when you catch guys who have the kind of stuff that the Mariners pitching staff has. All it takes is getting crossed up on one pitch and catching a single fastball or slider wrong to reaggravate the area. Throw in the frequent foul tips he absorbs and well, you get my point.
Not having the flexibility to give him multiple days off or DH days if his body needs it can cause a snowball effect of not only increased injuries but decreased offensive production. There’s also the mental aspect of feeling the pressure to be out there every day, knowing the backup options aren’t great for the team.
The Mariners are putting a lot of stock in Cal’s ability to stay healthy and don’t seem to have a decent backup plan for the worst-case scenario. And listen, before you yell at me for even suggesting the possibility of the worst-case scenario, the reality is that catchers get hurt. If, god forbid, Cal does have to miss significant time due to an injury, making Savala your everyday catcher is not a realistic option for a contending team. A call-up of Blake Hunt could be their move but in my opinion is just as risky. Hunt has zero big league experience and has struggled offensively in the minor leagues where he’s spent the last seven years. The Mariners have also added catcher Michael Papierski who does have a short cup of coffee in the big leagues but he is also unproven. Running someone like Hunt or Papierski out should ideally be your 4th or 5th best option in case of emergency - not your backup plan.
Seattle Mariners starting right-handed pitchers Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo came up big for the teams starting pitching in 2023. Can they replicate that success and take the next step in 2024? (Photos by Sage Zipeto)
2) Starting Pitching Depth
The Mariners have been extremely fortunate in regards to starting pitching health in recent years. They have either been able to avoid significant injuries to their rotation altogether, or, when they have sustained injuries, they have been able to fill in for them seamlessly with depth from their farm system. The fact that both Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo were injury call-ups last year for seasoned veterans and ended up not only filling in for those veterans but cementing themselves as permanent fixtures of what is arguably the best starting rotation in baseball is frankly absurd.
Now though, most of that depth has been depleted. The next man up is Emerson Hancock who, despite being a 6th-overall pick in the draft class before Miller and Woo, has had a harder time getting to the big leagues largely in part due to injuries. When he was finally called up last year (also to replace Woo who would go on the IL last August), he posted a 4.50 ERA in 12 innings pitched with 6 strikeouts before hitting the injured list himself. He has reported feeling good this spring and expressed a desire to compete for a spot in the rotation even though it is seemingly set.* The fire and drive is encouraging to see, and while we think Hancock is a serviceable big league starter, we don’t actually know that for certain yet.
After Hancock would likely be veteran Austin Voth, and after that, well.. you just hope it doesn’t come to that.
And while I understand pitcher injuries are all a part of baseball and that it would be unrealistic to expect the Mariners to have the same luck they have had in the past, the fact that this team’s foundation is built heavily on pitching is why this concern makes my list. If the crack in the foundation becomes big enough, your structure doesn’t stand a chance. The saying “you can never have enough pitching” will always ring true, but it seems to loom a little more ominously when you have graduated almost all of your talented minor league arms that had been depended on previously to prevent further foundational damage.
*Rewrite! Hancock has replaced Bryan Woo (IL) in the rotation as of 3/25
3) Defense
I would like to preface this by saying I believe Perry Hill is the best defensive coach in Major League Baseball.
With that said, he doesn’t walk on water and he can’t quite work miracles (although I am sure J.P. Crawford and Ty France would argue with me on that).
The trades of both Eugenio Suárez and Jarred Kelenic not only left big defensive holes on the left side of the field but it lost the team its best defender (outside of Julio, of course) by Outs Above Average in Geno. When we look at how the Mariners have replaced him, Luis Urías has struggled to stay healthy and on the field and, while Josh Rojas has typically been a plus defender at 2nd base (6 OAA career), he has historically been below average at 3rd base. J.P. Crawford’s defense has regressed in recent years, his biggest weakness being laterally toward the 5-6 hole. On the other side of the field, newcomer Jorge Polanco has been a below-average defender for the entirety of his career, and both Ty France and Mitch Haniger have had below average years recently, the latter mostly due to injury.
Much of the Mariners pitching staff, who has developed a love affair with sinkers in recent years, relies heavily on the defense behind them to create outs. Unfortunately, Julio can only cover so much ground, so the defense in front of him is going to have to step up and, somehow, put together better years defensively than they have in the recent past. I believe Jorge Polanco and Luis Urías (if in shape and healthy) will see improvements with the teachings of Sensei Hill, but some things like general explosiveness and fast-twitch movements just inevitably decline with age. The Mariners don’t exactly have a group of spring chickens playing defense and I think many of those age-related variables aren’t going to be able to be improved upon.
Overall, I’m cautiously optimistic about the 2024 season and absolutely ready to get hurt again. I will gladly go to battle for this group of guys any day of the week and twice on Sunday day games. I’m grateful for the baseball community we’ve built in Seattle and can’t wait to see what the next six months bring.
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