Navigating the Economic Inflection: Ryan Calkins on the Future of Trade, AI, and 'New Collar' Jobs
Port of Seattle Commission President Ryan Calkins recently joined host The Big O on The Pop-Up! to discuss the rapidly shifting economic landscape of Washington state. Returning to the studio five years after appearing on The Morning Update Show, Calkins provided an extensive look at how global politics, artificial intelligence, and a massive transition to sustainable energy are reshaping the region's workforce and infrastructure.
The Micro-Recessions Hiding in a Trade-Dependent State
Addressing Governor Ferguson’s recent announcement to form an economic activation council, Calkins expressed optimism about the coalition assembled across agriculture, healthcare, and public agencies. However, he issued a stark warning about the current state of the local economy, noting that macro-level data often obscures industry-specific struggles.
"In our region, there are sectors already in recession," Calkins said. "It's just kind of hidden by seasonality. We're in the middle of a strong tourist season, but the tech sector is starting to shed jobs associated with AI, and we're starting to see it in other professional services like legal and accounting services."
Because Washington remains "one of the most trade-dependent states in the country," international disruptions quickly echo through the local market. Calkins emphasized that whether commerce is "negatively impacted by tariffs or by the Iran war or by the next sort of black cloud over international trade, we feel it most here."
The AI 'Canyon' and the Rise of 'New Collar' Work
One of the most pressing issues raised by Calkins is the bottleneck facing recent graduates entering a job market transformed by artificial intelligence.
"There is a gap now where folks who are graduating from high school and college into entry-level positions—those are the very positions that are most susceptible to being replaced by AI," Calkins said. "And so now you've got this canyon between you and that mid-level career job that you may not have access to."
In response to this disruption, Calkins believes society must pivot away from the generational assumption that the pathway to success is a desk job and instead embrace a massive wave of workforce retraining centered on the trades. He introduced the concept of "new collar jobs" to describe how traditional blue-collar industries have evolved.
"You learn to weld or you learn to be a machinist or a plumber or a pipe fitter, but in fact, you're going to be doing the really technical stuff as well," Calkins said. "You're going to be behind a computer setting up a plasma welder or a laser cutter. You need to know not only how to weld, but also how to run the computer that does that. So you'll do the really interesting work and the computer will do the kind of drudgery."
Seattle as the 'Center of the New Energy Economy'
Beyond standard logistics, Calkins viewed the Port as a mechanism for regional growth during a defining historical pivot.
"We spent a hundred years developing a fossil fuel economy, and now we got to transition to the new energy economy," he said. "That's going to be disruptive and hard, but it's also this incredible opportunity for growth."
Calkins envisioned the Pacific Northwest leading this global shift, drawing a bold comparison to traditional energy hubs.
"I like to say if Houston is the center of the fossil economy, Seattle should be the center of the new energy economy. We've got the brain power. We've got the political motivation. We care about the earth in a way that you really need to understand,” he said.
To cultivate the "fertile soil" of the local economy, Calkins directed listeners to the port's robust career and paid internship programs, which span from high school opportunities to post-graduate roles in engineering, legal, and maintenance.
Learn more about the Port of Seattle at portseattle.org
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