Run aground: Mariners playoff potential plummeting after fourth straight loss
By Charles Hamaker
Seattle, WA – Since their historic month of August ended, the calendar has seen the Seattle Mariners crumble. A team that sat at the top of the American League West at that point, in the driver's seat of their postseason destiny, now sits in desperate need of assistance and a return to form. Houston Astros starting pitcher and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander delivered an eight inning masterclass, dismantling a Mariners lineup that’s lacked any sort of consistent production in the month of September. Seattle starter Luis Castillo was not rock solid, giving up two homers to Houston while his offense failed to back him up. All that can go wrong for the Mariners, beginning a critical final homestand of the season, is crashing down on them swiftly. To reference the Bonnie Tyler song, “Holding out for a hero,” Seattle is now holding out for that hero 'til the end of the night. Except, the clock ticks by, and it appears that nobody is coming to save the Mariners.
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jake Bobo threw out the ceremonial first pitch ahead of the ballgame (Photos by Liz Wolter)
Not so solid rock
The Mariners had ace starting pitcher Luis Castillo on the mound, looking to get a strong performance from the man nicknamed “La Piedra.” Although very reliable since being acquired last trade deadline by Seattle to not only shut down opposing lineups, but also give the Mariners length and rest their bullpen, Castillo had a few pitches slip into perfect spots for the Astros batters to take advantage, marring an otherwise good outing. Eight strikeouts and only one walk would have you thinking that Luis’ command was strong tonight, but he left pitches in spots for Houston’s hitters to drive and they did just that, finding the gaps in the Mariners outfield often. Castillo did still go six innings, which isn’t anything to scoff at, but the big deficit was something that this sloth of a Seattle offense could overcome.
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo threw six innings, but allowed two home runs during his outing (Photos by Liz Wolter)
Looking at the deeper statistics on Castillo’s start, Luis drew 13 whiffs on the night, getting seven of those on his fastball on leading the game with two more than Verlander. Luis came into this game with the second most swing and misses induced in the majors with 491, only adding to total tonight, but he surely wishes that he got more of those against this Astros lineup. Of the four pitch types that he deployed across the 92 pitches thrown (sinker, fastball, slider, changeup), Castillo saw upticks in velocity on all of them, as well as those same increases on the spin rate of his fastball and slider but decreases in spin on the sinker and changeup. Of the 17 balls that Houston put into fair territory, only seven of them were deemed as hit hard, with nine of those fair balls registering as line drives.
The Seattle Mariners offense only put together three hits on the night, not nearly enough in a critical game (Photos by Liz Wolter)
Inept offense appearing at the absolute wrong time
Typically, when issues occur in anything, adjustments are made to fix said issues. That hasn’t been the case for the Mariners offense in the month of September, as Seattle’s batters continue to chase pitches out of the zone and generally struggle with the breaking ball. Going up against Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, who has honed his arsenal over time including a slider that’s been devastating against the Mariners, the Seattle bats stood no chance tonight. Typically, with this team's lineup, the gripe with the lack of any production from them lies within the failure to drive runners in with runners in scoring position. The Mariners couldn’t even generate traffic in tonight’s loss, mustering only three hits on the night and a lone walk against the combined effort of eight innings from Verlander and reliever Bryan Abreu.
Seattle went down in order in seven of the nine innings in this ballgame, helping to keep this game going as the final time was a speedy two hours and twenty-one minutes, and they didn’t have a base runner from the fourth inning till the ninth. The biggest opportunity for the Mariners to kick the door of their deficit down and launch themselves back into the fight was when they loaded the bases with only one out back in the third inning. Houston had just gone up by four runs after a Yordan Alvarez solo shot to right field, but the T-Mobile Park crowd was on their feet and their energy was noticeably palpable. Up to the plate came superstar Julio Rodríguez, looking to add another highlight in his big second half of this season. Instead of tearing the roof off the ballpark, on a day where the Seattle rain had returned, Julio grounded into a double play and effectively squandered the biggest opportunity that the Mariners had at the plate. Rodríguez eventually did drive in the only run of the night for Seattle, a sacrifice fly to right field in the ninth that scored Josh Rojas who had doubled earlier in the inning, but it was far too little at a time far too late.
Seattle Mariners second baseman Josh Rojas doubled in the bottom of the ninth, being scored on a Julio Rodriguez sacrifice fly to record the only run of the game for their team (Photos by Liz Wolter)
Failures mounting
There are many different directions for fingers to be pointed when it comes to what looks increasingly like the downfall of the 2023 Seattle Mariners. In the offseason, the front office failed to get the necessary offensive impact (whether that be via free agency or trade) to improve a lineup that’s largely inconsistent at the plate. During the season, those bats were able to create traffic throughout the year, but outside of late July and the month of August, failed tremendously to drive that traffic in when it mattered most. In a somewhat minor form in relation to the entirety of the season, but heightened due to the timing of the occurrence, the pitching staff has hit a snag during the month of September and seem more human compared to the titanic show they put on in the first half to carry this ballclub. Finally, the month of September itself has been a massive return to the Mariners first half offense that chases, chases, and just generally failing to drive in any traffic along the bases. All the errors, mounting to create one glaring disappointment that may be the 2023 season.
There is still some miracle that this team can pull off and make the postseason. Take note that I said miracle, as this group sits four games out of the top spot in the division and a game and a half out of the third and final Wild Card. The Mariners can likely only afford to lose one more game to keep those hopes of the postseason alive, and even then, it’s not guaranteed. Texas, after a slump of August, is healthy once again and clicking with the billion-dollar offense. The Blue Jays, a team that Seattle battled heavily for a Wild Card spot, has hit bumps along the way but will likely secure the second spot. And this Astros team, battle tasted and finding themselves with the motivation of a sweep the last time they met the Mariners, may drive the final nail in the coffin of Seattle’s hopes this year. It’s still possible, I say after giving you the biggest heap of negativity there may be, but it will not at all be easy.
The Mariners possess the ability to make a magical run to close out the remaining six games in their regular season, but there hasn’t been much lately to give the fanbase encouragement that Seattle can flip that switch. Yes, they were able to bring the winning run to the plate in the ninth inning of every loss against the Rangers when they were swept by Texas. Yes, the pitching staff has been one of the best in all of baseball for most of the season. But with how cold they’ve been this month and a real lack of consistently good performances outside of the sweep in Oakland, what gives the city of Seattle a reason to believe? Rejuvenated performances from the top of your lineup (Crawford, Rodríguez, Raleigh, Hernández) is a major start to getting the offense moving, as well as a return to form for this pitching staff that’s hovered in the top three of numerous pitching statistics in all of baseball. But for any of that to happen, for that aforementioned miracle to take place, they need a spark. It isn’t sage, or maybe it’s a different kind, because there was a sage smell in the clubhouse today and it caused a fire alarm at the ballpark. Perhaps that was a bad omen.
Quick notes
The Mariners dropped tonight’s series opener to the Astros by a 5-1 score.
Seattle drops to 1.5 games behind Houston for the 3rd and final AL Wild Card Spot.
Seattle has 6 games remaining this season, while Houston has 5 games remaining.
Despite the loss, Seattle is 8-3 against Houston this season.
Tonight snapped a 10-game streak (7/30-9/19) in which the Mariners won a Luis Castillo start, tied for the 4th-longest such streak in franchise history.
Only two Mariners batters recorded a hit tonight…the 3 total hits tied the team’s season-low (8th 3-hit game).
Josh Rojas was the only Mariner batter with a multi-hit night… he recorded Seattle’s second and third hit of the night.
He went 2-for-3 with a single in the 3rd inning and double in the 9th inning.
He scored on a Julio Rodriguez sacrifice fly, Julio’s team-leading 101st RBI of the season and supplying Seattle’s only run of the night.
Dominic Canzone recorded Seattle’s first hit of the night in the 3rd inning with a single to right field.
With his 23rd catcher caught stealing of the season in the 3rd inning, Cal Raleigh is tied for 1st place among AL catchers (also: Shea Langeliers-OAK).
J.P. Crawford made it to base with a walk in the 3rd inning to load the bases.
With his strikeout of Jose Altuve in the 1st inning, Luis Castillo recorded the pitching staff’s 1,392 strikeout of the season to set a franchise record for most strikeouts in a season.
Castillo has gone 5.0+ innings in all 32 of his starts this season, most in MLB.
Tied for 5th-most 5.0+ IP games in a season in Mariners history and first since Félix Hernández (33 G) in 2014.
In his 32nd start of the season tonight, Castillo allowed 8 hits, 5 runs (5 earned), 2 home runs and 1 walk through 6.0 innings pitched.
He recorded 8 strike outs over 92 pitches and 68 strikes.
The Mariners bullpen (Trent Thornton, Taylor Saucedo and Dominic Leone) combined for 3.0 scoreless innings.
Saucedo walked 1 batter.
Thronton allowed 1 hit.
Leone walked 1, recorded 1 HBP and struck out 2.
What’s next?
Following the series opening loss to the Astros, the Mariners continue their three-game series against Houston when game two rolls around tomorrow, Tuesday, September 26th with a first pitch time of 7:05PM PST. For in-market fans, this game will be on its regularly scheduled broadcast of Root Sports, but for out-of-market fans it will be shown on TBS. Seattle will have right hander George Kirby on the mound, facing Houston in a big-time matchup for the second time in his young career, the other being game three of the American League Divisional Series. The Astros will have right hand Cristian Javier on the mound, as they’ll look to take the series and further their lead as the third Wild Card in the American League.
